Going where this year?

Bulan Januari ini, terhitung 4 tahun sudah saya terjun di Bursa Efek Indonesia sejak bulan Januari 2016. Niat pertama adalah, sama seperti mungkin nyaris semua investor saham di dunia, untuk menggapai kebebasan finansial. Karena saya tahu, penghasilan saya di pekerjaan saya yang sekarang ini, tidak cukup banyak untuk bisa langsung membeli rumah, atau bikin usaha, atau beli tanah. Untuk memutar tabungan saya yang cuma sedikit itu tadi, perlu sebuah instrumen atau alat yang lebih fleksibel. Pilihan saya jatuh ke saham. Beberapa orang-orang terkaya di dunia, memperoleh kekayaannya dari saham, yang paling terkenal tentu saja Warren Buffett. Mungkin saja saya bisa sedikit mengikuti jejak-jejak mereka di pasar saham.

Saya mulai dengan membaca primbon-primbon dasar pasar saham yang pasti direkomendasikan oleh nyaris semua investor di dunia, yaitu buku Intelligent Investor dan Security Analysis yang keduanya adalah karya Benjamin Graham. Kedua buku tersebut sudah teruji dan diakui oleh Warren Buffett sendiri, ya tentu saja karena Warren Buffett adalah mahasiswanya Benjamin Graham waktu beliau kuliah puluhan tahun yang lalu. Inti dari prinsip investasi yang dilakukan oleh Warren Buffett dan Benjamin Graham adalah mencari saham bagus, tetapi dengan valuasi rendah. Prinsip ini dikenal dengan nama value investing.

Parameter fundamental yang biasa digunakan dalam value Investing antara lain :

1. Price/Earning (P/E) ratio, yaitu perbandingan antara harga saham dan pendapatan perusahaan tersebut.
2. Price Book Value (PBV), yaitu perbandingan antara harga saham dengan nilai buku perusahaan tersebut.
3. Return on Equity (ROE), yaitu perbandingan pengembalian penghasilan atas modal yang ditanamkan pada perusahaan tersebut.
4. Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), yaitu perbandingan antara hutang dengan ekuitas perusahaan tersebut.

Prinsip investasi ini menenekankan bahwa kita hanya boleh berinvestasi pada perusahaan yang proses bisnisnya sederhana dan gampang untuk dimengerti. Dengan berbekal prinsip tersebut dikombinasikan dengan matematika sederhana untuk menghitung parameter fundamental, dan mencari info mengenai bisnis-bisnis perusahaan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia, saya memilih untuk membeli 5 saham yang berbeda, dengan modal yang tentu saja sangat cekak.

Sepanjang 2016, portofolio saya tumbuh 27%, sementara Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) tumbuh 15.3%. Lumayan karena diantara 5 saham tersebut, saya mendapatkan multibagger, yaitu saham yang tumbuhnya bisa sampai beberapa kali lipat. Multibagger saya di 2016 adalah PTBA, saham dari BUMN tambang batubara PT Bukit Asam. Saya memilih PTBA karena saya tahu, batubara dari Bukit Asam banyak dipakai oleh pembangkit-pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) di Indonesia, selain untuk diekspor. Dan pada saat itu sedang gencar-gencarnya pembangunan PLTU di Indonesia. Saya membeli PTBA dengan harga Rp 4.338 per lembar sahamnya. Di akhir 2016, harganya naik jadi Rp 12.500, atau naik nyaris 3 kali lipat. Tapi sayang, saham PTBA saya ini hanya 1/5 bagian dari seluruh portofolio saya. Saham saya yang lain cuma tumbuh sedikit, ada juga yang jeblok.

Di tahun 2017, saya mulai penasaran untuk memperoleh multibagger lain, dan karena saya makin sibuk dengan pekerjaan saya, saya pun mencari jalan pintas. Yaitu membeli rekomendasi saham dari investor lain yang sudah terkenal di Indonesia. Saya pun membeli beberapa saham rekomendasi tersebut. Ada satu yang sempat jadi multibagger, yaitu KBLI, saham dari PT KMI Wire and Cable. Ya memang ada sedikit insider info, karena saya tahu kabel dari KBLI banyak dipakai di seluruh penjuru Indonesia oleh perusahaan tempat saya bekerja. Saya membeli KBLI seharga Rp 280.5 per lembar pada Februari 2017. Dan ternyata hanya dua bulan kemudian naik menjadi Rp 865. Tapi sayang, saya terlalu percaya pada pasar modal yang akan menghargai KBLI lebih dari itu. Ternyata satu bulan kemudian KBLI mulai turun sampai lebih dari setengahnya.

Dan saham-saham lain yang saya beli berdasarkan rekomendasi tersebut, ternyata tidak ada yang bisa bagger, beberapa malah jongkok saja di tempat. Alhasil di tahun kedua ini saya dikalahkan telak oleh IHSG. IHSG naik 19.2%, eh portofolio saya turun, ya cuma sedikit sih -0.53%.

Tahun 2018, saya sudah tidak pakai lagi rekomendasi-rekomendasi berbayar. Saya screening sendiri semua emiten atau saham yang akan saya beli. Saya dapat bagger lagi di tahun 2018. Yaitu ERAA, saham dari importir dan distributor handphone dan gadget di Indonesia PT Erajaya Swasembada (swasembada kok impor, hehehe). Saya beli ERAA di harga Rp 1102, tidak sampai empat bulan setelahnya, naik jadi Rp 3400. Nah sayangnya sama juga dengan KBLI, walaupun kali ini hasil analisis sendiri, ERAA juga jatuh lagi beberapa bulan kemudian. Di tahun 2018, portofolio saya akhirnya naik 12.09%, tapi IHSG justru malah turun -2.54%. Mungkin hikmah karena beli saham hasil analisis sendiri, bukan ikut-ikutan orang.

Setelah saya pelajari lagi, saham yang bisa naik dan kemudian turun lagi kayak roller coaster gini, ternyata sedang ‘digoreng’ atau dipermainkan harganya oleh bandar, atau investor yang mempunyai dana sangat besar yang bisa mempengaruhi naik atau turunnya harga sebuah saham seenak hatinya sendiri dengan cara pump and dump atau beli di harga rendah. Kemudian beli lagi beli lagi sambil dinaikkan sedikit demi sedikit harga belinya supaya banyak orang lain yang juga ikut beli. Nah kemudian setelah dia dapat harga yang oke, dia jual lagi perlahan-lahan semua sahamnya di emiten tersebut. Sampai tercapai titik harga tertinggi, orang-orang lain pada sadar sudah tidak ada lagi yang jualan atau beli, sahamnya sepi lagi dan orang-orang akan keluar dari saham tersebut, dan akhirnya harganya pun jatuh kembali ke harga semula atau bahkan lebih rendah.

Akhirnya tahun 2019, saya mulai sedikit merubah strategi dengan pelan-pelan masuk di emiten saham blue chip dengan market capitalization atau total nilai saham yang besar. Saham dengan market cap yang besar memang lambat naiknya, tidak seperti saham dengan market cap kecil seperti ERAA yang cuma Rp 5,4 trilyun, atau KBLI yang cuma Rp 2 trilyun yang bisa naik banyak dalam hitungan bulan, tetapi relatif lebih resisten terhadap permainan bandar. Saat ini saya punya 26 saham (iya memang kebanyakan), memang sebagian besar dengan market cap kecil. Dan karena terlalu value investing, saya jadi lupa jualnya, karena menurut saya parameter fundamentalnya masih oke. Dan terus terang karena saya terlambat profit taking, ya contohnya di PTBA, KBLI, dan ERAA tadi, jadinya sayang mau dijual sekarang, nanti saja kalau dikerek bandar lagi. Hehehe. Di 2019, portofolio saya naik lebih tinggi dibanding IHSG, punya saya 7.49%, IHSG cuma naik sedikit 1.7%.

Tetapi untungnya selama ini, saya tidak pernah beli terlalu mahal dan jual terlalu murah atau cut loss. Beberapa kali momen IHSG drop saya manfaatkan untuk beli saham market cap besar (yang turun juga ikut IHSG). Sehingga walaupun ada beberapa yang minus, tapi overall portofolio saya tumbuh dalam 4 tahun ini. Dan overall, sudah bisa dikatakan (sedikit) beat the market.

Mungkin ada beberapa pelajaran yang bisa dipetik selama 4 tahun ini :

1. Jangan terlalu banyak punya saham. Untuk pemula maksimal 5 atau 10 saham saja. Kalau mau tambah saham lain, jual dulu saham yang dipunyai yang parameter fundamentalnya sudah keluar kriteria.
2. Jangan terlambat jual (untuk saham market cap kecil). Bandar-bandar saham di Indonesia sangat kejam dan haus darah. Dalam hitungan bulan suatu emiten bisa naik berkali-kali lipat, namun juga bisa langsung terjun hanya dalam hitungan minggu.
3. Gunakan keuntungan dari trading di saham market cap kecil untuk nabung saham blue chip yang market capnya besar dan relatif naik terus walaupun lambat naiknya.
4. Rekomendasi dari investor senior atau orang lain belum tentu lebih jitu dari hasil screening atau analisis sendiri, apalagi rekomendasi-rekomendasi berbayar. Kebanyakan investor yang jualan rekomendasi saham, sebagian besar penghasilannya ya diperoleh dari jualan rekomendasinya itu, bukan dari capital gain saham yang dia investasikan. Ya mungkin mirip-mirip MLM. Atau mirip management fee-nya hedge fund-hedge fund besar di Amerika serikat.

It’s already some years from some events that happened in my life. You know, in every place that you have been, they will make distinct impressions. Maybe some years ago I feel about that, but here right now, not so completely different but you know that they have the same root, the same cause.

Sometimes we need to confronting other people, sometimes we need to persuade them, but most in my life I saw men destroys other men. However, I am lucky that I grow up in a family that put conscience as a primary in life.  I face different creatures. I took up new challenges. But still, it’s me with the same attitude.

Like many years ago, like I always said, it is in a struggle that I’m living. There is no so called easy things in a struggle. And if I always got the hardest way, well, maybe that is the way that He arrange for me to serve Him. Not through the smooth and straight path, but by the many surprising possibilities that still fascinating me until now.

This is my jihad, and I hope it is Fisabilillah.

Welcomed in herds
Worked, whipped like a horse
Feed of leftover
Treated like a waste

In the same time,

Commended like a warrior
High words
Heroic songs
Up to the sky

Proved everything,

Talk is cheap
Do, is hard
As long as we, I, realize
Attitude, of gratitude
Limitless cure

I gave up hope
Was dead inside
Stayed lost within a world I chose to hide
Then I found my faith in him
And now I can
Begin again
I once believed
Our fate was sealed

But now at last, the truth has been revealed
In an instant
Life could change
And now and then begin again
I know that I am meant for something more
That life beyond these walls
Has greater things in store

When I heard his voice, I realized
I’d never be the same
Instantly I knew my life had changed
I dream of peace
Above all else
To share a world where we could be ourselves
We must learn to rise above the past
Before we can at last
Begin again

And where will we be tomorrow
If we do not leave today?

The more we wait for things to change
The more they stay the same
And the more they stay the same
We change

With all the floodgates opened
Walls of water at our heels
Where do we go from here?
Where we will turn to?
With all the shouldered load
With all the limitless possibilities

Like birds of passage flying free
Aimlessly soaring
Between time and space sorrow and joy

Through the night and undergrowth
We set out for the sea
Peering adsorbing consuming
And nothing ever good enough

No river too wide
No ocean too deep
No mountain too high
The myriads of open roads

Wayfarers at the crossroads
There’s always more than this never more than this
Eyes elude the landmarks
And the flame is swallowed now

Every river too wide
Every ocean too deep
Every mountain too high
The myriads of open roads

The human race, generally and normally, has three primary needs to live and survive on this earth, which is food, cloth, and house. Then secondary needs, which could vary depend on the condition. Then tertiary, more specifically depends on the human behaviour themselves. When the situation and condition is stable and get better over time, the needs were also growing. Human must be able to decided which needs that must be fullfilled first.

Start with primary needs, obviously the most cost consuming, housing. Took the constraint here in this country. With the keep high rising property price but slowly evolving small salary that could not keep up with that, whether want it or not, to have a proper (financially feasible with basic facility) and secure (again, financially feasible with basic facility) housing, bank loan must be taken.

Then the secondary, depend on my (present) family, with my grandmother, mother, father, one brother, and three sisters, not counting my (going to be) family. The health care, the education, and the transportation, a motorcycle would not be enough to adequately accommodate all of them (although my family has maximizing the usage of the minimized public transport). Again, bank loan.

The wed, yeah you know, it would also put a big hurricane to the pocket, and it also pull the down payment all those two.

Not mentioning everyday needs until the D-Day.

House, vehicle, wed, all of those big expenditures. All seems impossible without mortgage or loan with my age and position right now. But I don’t want to live under the burden of monthly bills, debts, and payments.

To make those things up, for now I realized that must put aside my secondary and tertiary dreams, the dreams that took most of my time during these days, to reach the primary needs, that I forgot during most of these days.

In the end, Bismillah, the show must go on again. Belt tight, hold tight, sleep tight.

Last year I took a deciding decision. Before I took that decision, I had very bad days run, I could not think clearly. And I make a plan to escape from that, the plan that looks pretty beautiful at that time. But I made this plan more with emotion than with logical thinking. And after all of the blood, sweat, and tears, those plan failed. All of the backup plans were slips away also. I would not tell how come, not now. Both affected mainly by myself, and from external condition (you know that).

From one side it could be viewed as a very huge blunder. If I stay in my previous occupation, I could save and spend my budget on all of those expenditures on the right time with minimal loan, and could even without any loan (if everything goes in plan also).

But from the other side, it could be viewed as a rescue. If I stay in my previous occupation, I could trapped in a zone, set of skills and knowledge that hardly could be applied elsewhere in the energy industry. The external condition that I mentioned before, predicted that it would last at least until 10 years. Which mean I could not switch to other job swiftly, not like right now. If something bad happened during that 10 years span, it would be the same. And worse, what must I do with my family?

And now, one and half plus years after my big deciding decision. Finally I landed a job on the energy industry again on the opposite sector (before was very upstream, and now is very downstream, relatively). On the job training actually. Starting from all over again, from the bottom, 3 years from my graduation.

Unintentionally, my present job got benefited by the once again mentioned external condition. I have the experiences, starting skills and knowledges. And I hope its only how to adapt faster to catch the objectives right on the time. How I manage my emotion, my ego, and my angst. And if there were more drama going to be happened, I hope I could tackle all of them down. I must take all of those advantages (and disavantages) to step and run through all task, the deadline, all of the barriers and obstacles.

One of my friend said that I was a failed man for 18 months, but I was lucky enough that those months were still on the early stage of my life. All of the mistakes and failures in the past were the provisions for the future. There are still many many months wait ahead, if God wills it. I believe with the more more careful plan and carefully crafted strategy, all of that could be hit and get.

When I was in highschool, I got accidentally tripped to metal music. Not really joined the scene though, I dug into the culture. I observed that many of its subgenre use astrological and mythological theme. Out one of many theme, I found that number 666 was show up very very frequently. It appear on the legendary Iron Maiden song, “The Number of the Beast”. At that times, I thought it was so cool and yeah, you could say it was pretty rock and roll. 6 is the difference of the month and the day of my birthday. Beside that, there was a reason that I could not write it there. But after all, starting from that time, I use the number 666 as part of my handle in world wide web. ‘top_x_666’ at first, then ‘topx666’ to shorthen it. Especially after I start to learn about computer in my first year in college, many people use pseudonym username, so why not I also use it.

So the time goes by. People had to be grown up. It is not relevant anymore. I think it is the time to drop it from public usage. And I decided to roll back my kandangbuaya and twitter username from now on. Well actually, I could not find any other handle that equally cool, but not as disturbing as it. And for your info, I still love metal music.

Since I was kid, my dreams in sleeping was very much strange. Maybe because I read many books, including my grandfather’s massive book collection and many comics that I read from the comic rental, and I watch so many films, including much early Japanese anime that shown on the TV. I also often be carried up by my mother to visit her friends and my relatives.

Much of my dreams’ plot was a journey. And the majority of it was an escape journey, either from a ruthless warlord, a ferocious chieftain, or escape from a disaster. I had a dream about 3 weeks ago, an Ebola outbreak spreads in Indonesia, me and my family ran off to remote mountain to evade the epidemics. Other people stayed in the city and wait for the relief that promised by the government. I didn’t know if they survived. We lived on the forest to survive. We grew our own food, and my brother hunting forest animal.

Sometimes, on my dreams I was on a mission, to obtain something, or to destroy something. I got my objectives from various people, from my father, to a village elder. My dreams 2 weeks ago, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Levant (ISIS/ISIL) invade Yogyakarta, and I been captured by one of their squad. The soldiers were common young Javanese boys. They have a commander, a big guy with very amazing beard. I thought that he was not an Arab man. Because when I hear their conversation, the commander speaks using a Southern American dialect, more precisely Texan English dialect. I managed to escape from their base in border of Yogyakarta and Klaten, about near Prambanan. I ran to the rural northeast.

And much of my dreams was set on or passing a cemetery, huge and vast cemetery. And nearly all of that were royal noble family cemetery building complex. In my dreams, sometimes the cemetery keeper told me that the complex was the cemetery of my ancestors, so I didn’t need to be scared. Sometimes the whole town was a cemetery. I had to passed the cemetery to meet my mission objectives. Sometimes my foes in that dreams, didn’t dare to chase me through the cemetery. So it was like I was save inside the cemetery complex.

Some of my past dreams, were more bizarre than my dreams I explained above. I don’t know what the meaning of that dreams. But I knew that they were the amalgamations of my feeling at that time. Maybe I should dig up and write some of them.

Setelah data2 terkumpul, dimulailah proses drilling atau pengeboran sumur. Sebelum ngebor, dibikin dulu drilling plan atau drilling schedule, yang intinya berisi seberapa dalam mau ngebor, teknis2 drilling, dan yang paling penting kapan target selesai ngebornya.

Dalamnya sumur yang mau dibor bisa bervariasi antara beberapa ratus meter saja, sampe ribuan meter. Untuk mengebor sumur, digunakan struktur yang namanya drilling rig. Jaman dulu biasanya digunakan kelly rig, yang motor penggerak bor nya berada di bagian bawah struktur rig. Namun sebagian besar udah digantikan sama top drive motor, dimana motor penggerak bornya digantung di bagian atas struktur rig.

Buat menurunkan mata bor sampe ribuan meter tadi digunakan drill pipe. Drill pipe ini juga berfungsi untuk mengalirkan drilling fluid yang biasanya berupa lumpur ke dasar sumur. Buat apa pake lumpur? Gampangnya gini, sumur ini dalamnya ribuan meter, kebayang gak kalo dinding sumur yang udah susah payah dibor ini runtuh. Nah lumpur ini berguna buat mengisi volume sumur supaya tanah dan batuan di sekeliling sumur gak runtuh. Itu adalah fungsi utamanya. Fungsi lainnya ada banyak, buat mendinginkan mata bor, buat ngangkat serpihan tanah dan batuan yang udah dibor naik ke permukaan, dll.

Selama ini dibayangkan kalo sumur itu biasanya ya cuma vertikal aja dari atas ke bawah. Nah di dunia oil and gas, gak jarang ditemui kasus dimana harus dibikin sumur directional atau horizontal, alasannya juga macem2. Misalnya dibawah sebuah desa ternyata menurut survei seismik ada kandungan hidrokarbon, masak iya seluruh penduduk desa disuruh pindah demi bisa ngebor disitu. Nah caranya ya bikin sumur yang dimulai dari samping desa yang ada lahan buat ngediriin drilling rig, kemudian dibor directional miring ke bawah desa tadi. Ato bisa juga karena diatas reservoir yang mau dituju ada formasi batuan yang keras banget dan berbahaya buat dibor, makanya dibikin sumur directional biar gak kena batu tadi.

Sejauh ini kayaknya proses drilling adalah tahap proses eksplorasi oil and gas yang paling beresiko dan berbahaya. Banyak barang2 berat yang digunakan, mulai dari struktur drilling rig nya sendiri, motornya, crane buat ngangkat2 barang, dll. Kemudian juga faktor teknis dan faktor alam, misal drilling fluid gagal menjaga well pressure lebih tinggi dari formation pressure, yaudah terjadi blow out. Kasus blow out paling terkenal di Indonesia ya Lapindo itu.